Real Iowa Loser: Rovian Politics

Things are moving fast in Iowa and its all pretty good. The pundits are beginning to get the fact that politics is about the positive, not just the negative.

To me the message is that US is in such a mess that the American people have decided they will have to fight their way out - not just fight among themselves.

More over the fold.

All of the turnout numbers have been landslide territory. In a pure swing state, Democrats turned out 2:1 more frequently than Republicans.

The winner and second-place candidates (Obama and Edwards) took big risks with messages of constructive change. Obama argued for heart-warming national coalescence and cooperation to tackle national problems. Edwards argued for a confrontational attack on America's chronic, lingering problems and their traditional corporate enablers.

Even in the depleted Republican camp, the runaway winner talked optimistically about positive change. Democrats may gag on the details of Huckabee's vision, but included a lot more constructivist ideas than any recent Republican campaign.

The real loser is the Karl Rove school of divisive, suppressive, negative politics. The candidates that were perceived as trying to use Rovian political tactics to suppress their opponents' support (Romney and Clinton) were hit hard.

Negative tactics only work when the populace is susceptible to being apathetic, turned off and lethargic. The massive turnout in Iowa and the support for positive messages says that American voters are eager to be passionate, enthusiastic, and constructive. All of these new voters gave their votes to people who talked about the future and offered positive, constructive, and problem-solving visions. They gave the vast majority of those votes to Democrats, but, even among those stubborn Republicans, they gave them to the least negative of their options.

R.I.P. Karl Rove - Political Guru

•  tip jar

  by grapes on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:31:17 PM PDT

  •  Really well done

    by Nulwee on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:34:10 PM PDT

•  Your attempt to connect Hillary with Rove

  ...is Rovian politics.

  by jmknapp on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:33:21 PM PDT

  •  I'm watching her speech

    She is hitting every note perfectly to gainsay what I said in my diary. That could mean several things:

    1. I was wrong and unfair in lumping her in with the dark side.

    2. She is finally getting her campaign on the right track that her heart says is should follow.

    2. She finally gets it and is jettisoning the last vestiges of her old-school political pros.

    3. She is the uber-Rove in analyzing the tea leaves.

    I deeply hope that it is one of the first 2 - or at least the third. Hillary is an amazingly capable person  who could do a wonderful job for America.

    by grapes on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:39:57 PM PDT

  •  well

    I'd normally agree, but I don't think the diarist was being that direct.

    To look at this realistically, Clinton was trying to stop all of these young people who caucused from showing up, as did Dodd.  Also, like Dodd, they're still on in Michigan.  She's going to have one easy, cynical victory there.

    by Nulwee on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:43:44 PM PDT

  •  come on. her tactics, and those here

    who pushed many of us into anger, with their crappy tactics, owe us all an apology. I just don't see them being big enough to do that.

    nor honorable enough.

    nor moral or ethical enough. Not even honest enough.

    Obama won, Edwards came in second, and she lost. Her rovian approach had a lot to do with that result.

    by agnostic on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:45:32 PM PDT

•  Absolutely right

  This is an especially good insight considering Rove's column of a couple of months ago "advising" Obama on how to beat Hillary.  http://www.ft.com/...

  by Man in Black on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:34:54 PM PDT

•  I think you're confusing hope and expectations.

  people will do whatever works to win, and being dirty will work again.

  I always HOPE things will be different, BUT

  Whoever is running TO WIN better be expecting dirt and preparing for dirt, OR

  they ain't gonna win.

  rmm.

  by seabos84 on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:36:42 PM PDT

  •  I didn't say it would last

    ref: the poll

    But I'm enjoying it tonight.

    by grapes on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:40:56 PM PDT

    •  there are other examples

      like Jim Webb v. Allen.  The Allen attempt to smear Webb for his writing backfired and lost the election.  People don't like negative campaigning, it's starting to backfire.

      by unterhausen on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:09:35 PM PDT

•  Since the Republicans won't abandon it, ever

  Your poll doesn't have enough choices.

  Unless you're trying to say that HRC and JRE practice Rovian politics. You're not saying that, right?

  by lambertstrether on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:38:06 PM PDT

  •  Hillary definitely has.

    Mark Penn: Did I say cocaine?  I didn't mean to say cocaine.  Obama, cocaine, Obama, cocaine.  

    Can you say dog whistle?

     

    by Man in Black on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:40:54 PM PDT

  •  Legitimate point

    The half-life of this shift will clearly be much shorter for Republicans than for most Americans. I really have no idea how long it will last.

    But it has already lasted longer (1 evening) than I ever thought it would.

    by grapes on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:44:30 PM PDT

•  Well, Huckabee used a bit of Rove

  This past week with that Romney attack ad.

  But yes, a lot of the bullshit that was thrown around fell flat on it's face.

  by The Other Steve on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:52:33 PM PDT

•  Iowa is Reported As Consistently Disliking Neg

  campaigning.

  So no, the results tonight do not mean anything.

  The 2008 will be the meanest and nastiest we've ever known.

  by Gooserock on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:54:04 PM PDT

  •  Sound of Balloon Bursting?

    Actually, not.

    I've heard that said many times about Iowa and I accept it.

    However, the key difference is the heavy new Democratic turnout and the new demographic participations.

    Rovian politics is about using the negative to suppress non-supporters' turnout. When overall turnout explodes, as it did in Iowa, Rovian tactics become far less useful.

    by grapes on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:00:14 PM PDT

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  by SarahLee on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:03:24 PM PDT